“我将告诉你怎样才能变得富有：关上大门。他人贪婪时我恐惧，他人恐惧时我贪婪。”

——沃伦·巴菲特

（美国伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官，也是投资大师，通过“精明的”投资他的个人资产达到了800亿美元以上，并成为全球第三大富豪。）

1999年5月，应该是5月26号。我第一次入住上海浦东的香格里拉酒店。我清楚地记得这个日子是因为在这一天，一位同事在酒店大厅里告诉我，英国著名电视节目主持人吉尔·丹多在自家门口被人谋杀，原因不详。这一消息震惊了英国，不得不让我们质疑整个的社会道德体系。如此可怕的事情怎么会发生在这么一个好人身上。我们都记得当时的情形——我就在浦东，凝望着长江对岸—上海外滩。此后我多次回到此地，亲眼见证了这个世界级城市翻天覆地的发展。

我不确定究竟是什么原因让这些小岛在经济发展的过程中扮演着重要角色—如曼哈顿、纽约、新加坡、香港，当然首选是威尼斯，也许是因为人才和企业高度聚集在狭小空间内。它们就像是个人类蜂巢，赚的不是蜂蜜而是金钱。上海在字面上的意思是：在大海之上。现在确实也成为了世界上最大的集装箱港口。上海拥有世界上最多的人口，2350多万的人安家落户，相比之下我们的家乡——伦敦，一个拥有880多万人口的城市，就像是一个小村庄。

上海拥有世界上最多的人口，2350多万的人安家落户，相比之下我们的家乡——伦敦，一个拥有880多万人口的城市，就像是一个小村庄。由于地处长江三角洲入海口的战略位置，3000多年来上海一直是一个充满活力的人口聚居地。因此，徒步开始我对过去四十年里，上海在中国改革开放中所扮演的重要角色十分感兴趣。

证券交易所是一个为企业提供投资资本并创造财富的重要场所。企业需要资金购买新机器增加生产力。而投资者也愿意借出自己的资产以增加未来资产增值的可能性。证劵交易所的作用就是匹配企业和投资者。就像奇趣网或是阿里巴巴通过上市完成了企业扩张。这也是一种评估企业价值和允许投资者交易股票的机制。

如果不是通过证券交易所，我们不会知道苹果是世界上最有价值的公司，市值达到5820亿美元；我们不会知道阿里巴巴的市值接近5000亿美元，并且在五年内很可能成为世界上最大的公司；还有，我们也不会知道沃伦·巴菲特是世界上第三大富豪。随着这些公司价值的增长，数以百万计的小投资者的财富储蓄和养老金也随之增长。但正如一些人所说的那样，股市是由市场情绪中的“恐惧和贪婪”所驱动的。如果市场情绪对股票不利，即使公司的基础资产仍然稳固，股票也是会贬值的。这就是风险，因为市场需要在风险和回报之间进行权衡。

1891年，第一家上海证券交易所开市。然而在1949年就倒闭了。当邓小平提出改革开放的愿景时，他知道企业需要获得资本才能在世界舞台上与其他国家的企业进行竞争。因此，1990年11月26日，上海证券交易所重新开市，更重要的是它重新开放了交易大厅。今天它是世界第五大证券交易所。因为它不像香港、伦敦和纽约那样对外国投资者和外国公司完全开放，因此它的成长壮大受到了限制。十年前，这一因素也使中国得以从2008年全球银行业危机和股市崩盘的严重影响中得以坚持下来的一个主要原因。随着中国企业的持续发展，他们将会对资本充满渴望，而中国和世界的证券交易所将会继续扩张以满足他们的需求。这是一个巨大的潜在回报，但也是一个巨大的潜在风险。

原文 / 麦克·贝茨勋爵

翻译 / 陈必萍

翻译校对 / 杨梦

微信编辑 / 李璟瑶

总校对 / 李熙琳、雪琳

贝茨勋爵日志英文原文如下：

"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." (Warren Buffett US CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and investment guru who has made a personal fortune of $80 billion + through 'smart' investments making him the third richest man in the world)

I first stayed at the Shangri La Hotel in Pudong Shanghai in April 1999--the 26th of April to be precise. I know the date because it was their in the lobby that a colleague from my company Oxford Analytica informed me that popular British tv presenter Jill Dando had been murdered on her own doorstep with no apparent motive. It was an attack that shocked Britain and made us question the morality of our society where such a terrible thing could happen to such a good person. We all remember where we were at those moments and I was on Pudong Island looking across the Yangtze River to The Bund of Shanghai.  I have been back many times and witnessed the remarkable growth into the World City it is today.

I am not sure what it is about small islands but they do seem to play an incredible role in economic development--Manhattan, New York; Singapore; Hong Kong and, the first, Venice. Perhaps it is the concentration of talent and enterprise in such a small geographic space. They are like a human beehive making not honey but money. Shanghai literally means 'upon the sea' and Shanghai is now the largest container port in the world.

Shanghai is the largest city in the world by population--23.5 million people call it home making our home of London with its population of 8.8 million seem like a village in comparison. Because of its strategic position at the mouth of the Yangtze River Delta there has been a vibrant settlement here for 3000 years. It is more the last forty years that I am interested in on this walk and here Shanghai had a major part to play in China's reform and opening up.

Stock Exchanges a fundamental part of providing investment capital to business and creating wealth. They do so by matching companies needing investment to buy for example new machines which will make them more productive with investors willing to lend with the prospect of their shareholding reflect the increased profitability of the firm in the future. Its like eBay or Alibaba for business. It is also a mechanism for valuing businesses and allowing investors to trade shares.

How would we know Apple Inc is the most valuable company in the world worth $582 billion or that Alibaba is worth close to $500 billion and will probably become the largest company in the world five years, or that Warren Buffett is the third richest man in the world if the stock exchange did not tell us. As the value of those companies grows so does the wealth of millions of small investors savings and pensions. But as shares are driven by sentiment 'fear and greed' as some would say. Shares can lose value even when the underlying asset, the share in the company, is still good if the mood of the market turns against them. This is risk and markets all involve a trade off between risk and reward.

The first Shanghai Stock Exchange was opened in the city in 1891. Then it was closed in 1949. When Deng Xiaoping set out the vision for reform and opening up he knew that enterprises would need access to capital to compete on the world stage and so on 26 November 1990 the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened its doors and more importantly its trading floors again. Today it is the fifth largest stock exchange in the world. It's growth is limited as it is not fully open to foreign investors and foreign companies in the same way that say Hong Kong, London and New York would be. Ten years ago this factor was to be a major reason why China was persevered from the worst effects of the global banking crisis and stock market collapse of 2008. As Chinese enterprises continue to grow they will be hungry for capital and the stock exchanges of China and the world will continue to expand to meet their needs. That is a great potential reward but also a great potential risk.

来源：贝茨勋爵

投稿：职教城宣传部

制作：李璟瑶

责编：李倩